U469  Mongolia:  Theocracy, Communism, Democracy
    (formerly Mongols of the 20th Century)
    Week 16:  Thursday
     
  1. Foreign Policy
    1. Mongolia non-aligned, non-nuclear
    2. We need a Third Neighbor/Partner (gurawdugaar khörsh/tünsh)
      1. Russia too weak, can’t balance China
      2. U.S., Japan, EU must balance China
      3. Mongolia must be: open to investment, follow the rules
      4. Trade much more diverse, China 2nd, but Russia still first
        1. Exp: USSR 75%, China 10%, Imp: USSR 75%, China 5% (1991)
        2. Exp: Russia 10%, China 59%; Imp: Russia 34%, China 21% (2000)
    3. Mongolian-Chinese relations
      1. Political: Beijing-UB relations very correct; mutual visits, etc.
        1. Inner Mongolia, pan-Mongolism officially a non-issue
      2. Economic: Chinese imports unpopular, main market for minerals, cashmere
      3. Social: privatization, market economy >> open to Chinese
  2. Government and Politics
    1. New constitution
      1. Unicameral legislature
      2. Strong president (but supposedly only titular)
      3. Uncertainty over exact role of PM; parliamentary system or not?
      4. "Humane Society"; "Internationally accepted norms of human rights"
    2. Electoral scene
      1. Cities for democrats
      2. 3 western aimags for MPRP
      3. Khalkha countryside are swing voters (but locally MPRP dominant)
      4. Retirees: MPRP (transition very harsh); youth more for democrats
    3. Electoral strategies
      1. MPRP selling points: age & experience; real Mongolian tradition
      2. Democrat selling points: throw the bums out; good with donor countries
  3. Managing the economy
    1. Consensus: Socialist economy is now unviable
      1. Mongolian economy too dependent to be autarchic
        1. 1996: Abolition of almost all import-export tariffs
      2. Need for replace Soviet aid >> need to heed new donor concerns
        1. Soviet: $16.8 b. (1990); new debt: $200-250 m. soft loans/year
      3. Retail stores, small industry, herds privatized
      4. Question: what to do about the big enterprises?
    2. The new economy:  Transition shocks and structural change
      1. Sectors up:  mining, herding (but then down), services (after drop)
      2. Sectors down (and out?):  manufacturing; grain farming
      3. Trade deficits depend on world mineral and cashmere markets
        1. Erdenet still biggest single export earner; cashmere second
        2. Gold, oil, copper; Canadian investment > Chinese market
        3. Cashmere hurt by overproduction; export raw or finished?
      4. Inflation:  peaked in 1992:  325%; 8% in 2000.
      5. GDP: lowest 1996, growth dropped to 1% in zud, reached 5% 2003
      6. Unemployment:  peaked at 9% (1994), 5% in 2000
      7. Climate problems:  1996 fires, 2000-2001 zud/livestock death
  4. Society and pastoral sector
    1. Greater social differentiation
      1. Polity MORE radial:  UB 33%, rural 43%, other urban 25%
      2. Marriage age up (2 years), fertility way down
      3. Inequality still moderate but rising; Gini factor 35 (1998)
      4. Poverty 36% (1997) and new businessmen, "millionaires"
      5. Services/safety net deteriorates in transition, now improving
    2. Pastoral society
      1. Privatization of herds 1992; compulsory sales over, khot ails reform
      2. Less goods in countryside >> boom in herd numbers 1993 on
      3. Pastoral economy soaks up unemployed
      4. New herders less skillful, less mobile; conflicts over pastures
      5. Zud: shows ecological limits to herd growth >> whither excess herders?
  5. Culture and Identity: Epochalism and Essentialism in a new context
    1. Artistic and cultural epochalism vs. essentialism
      1. Old conflict: subsidized folkloric art vs. subsidized European art
      2. 1986-1993 interlude: folkloric/dem. nationalist culture dominant
      3. New conflict: high brow culture vs. low-brow culture
        1. Without subsidy, high brow culture >> minority position
      4. Reaction: Alienation of poets, intellectuals from new cultural scene
        1. Populist fringe significant culturally, marginal politically
    1. Religious epochalism vs. essentialism
      1. Essentialist religion: Buddhist revival
        1. Clergy: Lama schools; Tibetanization? Mongolization?
        2. Laity: life-cycle rituals, local cults, astrology, TV programs
        3. Minor state role: e.g. Migjid Janraisig statue dedication
      2. Essentialist religion: Bone-setters (bariach) (plus shamans)
      3. Epochalist religion: Christian missions
        1. Mostly young, female, urban adherents: least tied to essentialism
      4. Key to continued influence: being both epochalist AND essentialist