Science, Policy, and the Pursuit of Sustainability

Edited by
Robert Bent, Lloyd Orr, and Randall Baker
Illustrated by
William Z. Shetter
Institute for Advanced Study
Indiana University

ISLAND PRESS
Washington-Covelo-London
May 2002

A broad view of world energy problems written by participants in an interdisciplinary faculty seminar at Indiana University

Introduction: The Energy-Environment Problem
Chapter 1. Rules of the Game: the Laws of Nature that Govern All Energy Transformations
Chapter 2. Future World Energy Needs and Resources
Chapter 3. Environmental Impacts of Energy Use
Chapter 4. Culture and Energy Consumption
Chapter 5. Energy Policy: The Problem of Public Perception
Chapter 6. Energy and Sustainable Economic Growth
Chapter 7. Protecting Future People: The motivation Problem
Some Conclusions (text found near the bottom of this page)

The Contributors

William Shetter, Lloyd Orr, Robert Bent and Randall Baker

Photo - L to R: William Shetter (illustrator); Lloyd Orr, Robert Bent, and Randall Baker (editors)

Andrew Bacher - Professor of physics at Indiana University.
Randall Baker - Director of International Programs and professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University.
Robert Bent - Professor Emeritus of physics at Indiana University.
Mary Ellen Brown - Director of the Indiana University Institute for Advanced Study and professor of folklore and ethnomusicology at Indiana University.
Norman Care - Professor of philosophy at Oberlin College (deceased, 2001).
Lee Hamilton - Director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C., and Director of the Center on Congress at Indiana University. Congressman from Indiana in the U.S. House of Representative from 1965-99.
Russell Lee - Distinguished research and development staff member for science and technology at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with over twenty-five years experience in the analysis of energy supply and demand, energy-economic modeling, and analysis of the environmental externalities associated with energy production and use.
Lloyd Orr - Professor Emeritus of economics and former chair of the economics department at Indiana University.
John Sheffield - Director of the Joint Institute for Energy and Environment at the University of Tennessee and co-director of a joint institute of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Kurchatov Institute in Moscow, involved in studies of future energy demand and alternative energy sources for the world.
William Z. Shetter - Professor Emeritus of Germanic Studies at Indiana University, with specialization in the fields of linguistics and the language and culture of the Netherlands and a lifelong passion for graphic art.
Ian Thomas - Physics Instructor at Columbia Independent School in Columbia, MO. Formerly Assistant Producer (Science) at the B.B.C. Open University Production Centre, Milton Keynes, U.K.; and Multimedia Producer/Instructional Designer at the Graphic Education Corporation, Columbia, MO.
Richard Wilk - Professor and Chairman of the department of anthropology at Indiana University, and president of the Society for Economic Anthropology.
Glen R. Young - Group leader for the Nuclear Physics Experimental Program in the physics division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The Energy Problem

The root cause of world energy problems is growing world population and energy consumption per capita.

World population is presently slightly over 6 billion and expected to grow to at least 8-9 billion, and possibly to 12 billion, by the end of the 21st century. It would reach 12 billion by the middle of the 21st century if the present 1.5% per year growth rate were to continue. World economic growth and global demand for energy, the essential engine of economic growth, are expected to grow even faster during the next few decades - by 3.3 percent a year, corresponding to a doubling time of 21 years.

How many people can the earth support? Most experts estimate the limit for long-term sustainability to be between 4 and 16 billion.

The central question addressed in this book is: How can the world meet its energy needs during the 21st century without doing intolerable and irreparable damage to the environment?

Some Conclusions

What is meant by "sustainability"? It is a somewhat vague term whose definition is not always clear, depending on what it is that one wants to sustain. The most widely accepted general definition of sustainable development is that given by the United Nations' World Commission on Environmental Development:

Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

The physicist Nobel Laureate Murray Gell-Mann offers in his book The Quark and the Jaguar: Adventures in the Simple and the Complex the following definition of sustainability:

The achievement of quality of human life and of the state of the biosphere that is not purchased mainly at the expense of the future. It encompasses survival of a measure of human cultural diversity and also of many of the organisms with which we share the planet, as well as the ecological communities that they form.

An economist's definition of sustainability is given by Lloyd Orr in chapter 7:

The preservation for future generations of a set of economic and social opportunities that are at least as rich and diverse as our own. It is not a goal so much as a process of continuous change and adaptation.

Working toward a sustainable future is best viewed as a continuous process of adaptation to changing circumstances. Sustainability is an elusive goal that we pursue but never fully achieve - like many other goals in life, such as the pursuit of happiness. It is up to each generation to head in the right direction and then to pass the baton to the next generation.

The primary aim of this book is to change perceptions and attitudes rather than to give specific policy recommendations. Nevertheless, some general goals suggested by this work for the world in the 21st century are clear. They include

vast improvements in the efficiency with which we use energy;
accelerated development of alternative energy resources to replace fossil fuels - including the technology required for them to meet acceptable environmental standards;
reduction in energy use per capita in the developed world;
stabilization of world population with a smaller per capita energy use than has been required historically in developed countries.

Are we headed in the right direction? Fuel efficiency of automobiles has gone down, not up, in recent decades; the U.S. is attempting to solve its oil problems by more domestic drilling and greater control of foreign oil supplies, rather than through greater energy efficiency, conservation, and development of renewable energy resources, such as solar and wind; world population is still growing at the rate of 1.5% per year, corresponding to a doubling time of 47 years.

Finding the right direction is a complex interdisciplinary problem requiring a basic understanding of both the laws of nature that constrain our options and the fundamental moral, cultural, economic, and political principles that determine how humans behave. In this book, we have focused on basic facts and fundamental principles in the belief that a broader understanding of these principles by policy makers and the general public is needed in a democratic society to move us toward a sustainable future.

For their implementation, these principles require a broad public understanding of what is at stake, recognition of both our limits and our opportunities, and the development of political will.

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The text for the Energy Problem and the Conclusions (as stated above) can be downloaded for easy printing.
The Energy Problem (PDF file) Conclusions (PDF file)

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Robert D. Bent
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Science, Policy, and the Pursuit of Sustainability

Contents

The Contributors