Long-Range Projections
Summary of Current Projection: August 2009
National
The quarterly U.S. forecast of May 2009 was used as the basis for this long run projection. As shown in the Table below, that forecast showed real GDP growth averaging only 1.6% over the period 2009-2012. Employment was expected to rise at a 0.3% rate, while consumer inflation averaged only 0.9%. Over the period 2013 to 2030, real GDP growth is well above the near-term performance. It is basically equivalent to that projected in February 2009, as is our projection of employment growth. The long-run growth in both output and employment are in line with our assumptions about long-run potential. Inflation is higher in the long-run than in the near-term.
| Variable | ||
| Real GDP | ||
| Total Establish. Employment | ||
| Consumption Deflator | ||
Indiana
The Indiana long run projection uses our May 2009 short run control forecast as its basis. The resulting long-run projections for employment are essentially equivalent to our February 2009 projection.
For the projection of the industry gross state product variables (GSPs), we used the GSP historical data released in July 2009 which covers the period 1997 to 2007. Productivity is defined as the ratio of GSP to total employment in an industry. Projections of productivity together with projected sectoral employment levels are used to calculate GSP. Our productivity assumptions for the state are slightly above those used in February. As a result, GSP growth in this projection is a little higher than our previous projection.
The average growth rate of total Gross State Product over 2013-2030 is projected to be 2.9% per year. . Over the same period total Indiana employment is projected to grow at a 1.0% rate, with employment in manufacturing falling at a 0.8% rate, and in non-manufacturing rising at a 1.3% rate.
