|Place of Birth:||Germany, December 3, 1941|
|Marital Status:||Married, one child, Philip G.|
|Citizenship:||U.S.; Wife - Gabrielle M.: U.S.|
|Foreign Languages:||German, some reading knowledge of French,
Currently studying (Mexican) Spanish
Wife: Dutch, German, French
EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT:
Columbia School of General Studies, 1961-63: B.S. magna cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa, Major in Economics.
Princeton University, 1963-65: International Finance Fellow,
The Brookings Institution, 1965-66: Pre-Doctoral Fellow.
Cornell University, 1966-67: Assistant Professor of Economics.
The Brookings Institution, 1967-68: Economic Policy Fellow assigned to the Program Evaluation Section of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, HUD (Office of the Deputy Undersecretary).
Cornell University, 1968-70: Assistant Professor of Economics, member of Graduate Faculty.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, summer of 1970: In-house Consultant.
Indiana University, 1970-73: Associate Professor of Economics.
Ausburg University, Germany, Fall 1972: Visiting Professor.
July 1973: Promotion to full professor with tenure, Indiana University.
September 1973 - February 1976: Senior Staff Economist, U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), Washington, D.C.
February 1976 - August 1976: Resident Economist, American Enterprise Institute.
September 1976 - October 1978: Professor of Economics, Indiana University.
November 1978 - August 1983: Chief, Financial Studies Division of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C..
September 1983 to date: Rudy Professor of Economics, Indiana University.
August 1989 to August 1990: Visiting Senior Economist, Planning and Economic Analysis Staff, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, U.S. Department of State.
Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Germany, Summer 1994: Visiting Professor.
1994-95 Academic Year: First Bissell-Fulbright Professor in Canadian-American Relations, Centre for International Studies, University of Toronto.
GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE TEACHING EXPERIENCE:
Macroeconomic Theory, International Finance, Public Finance, Theory of Income Distribution.
MAJOR GRANTS AND CONTRACTS:
Project Director and Contributing editor of $450,000 Study of Capital Investment and Saving, American Council of Life Insurance, since August 1976. Project completion date: October 1979.
Hudson Institute project on "Industrial Country Protectionism: Impact on LDCs," 1985-86, consultant, funded at $25,000 with associate.
Indiana University, Dean of the Faculties. Multi-Disciplinary Seminars Program. Organizer of project, "The Treatment of Uncertainty in the Sciences: Impulses and Perspectives from Various Disciplines," funded at $25,000 for 1987/88 with 5 colleagues from other disciplines. Multidisciplinary volume edited and published: January 1990 (Kluwer).
Smith Richardson Foundation, December 1, 1987: $47,000 to fund a conference in Germany (Cologne, June 29-30, 1988) on supply-side economics. Conference volume co-edited and published: December 1988 (Springer).
Fulbright Lecturing and Research Grant (No. 91-64423, awarded 5/8/91, serial grant). Part I: May-July 1991, University of Szczecin, Poland; Part II: May-July 1992, International Business School, Warsaw, and Lublin Business School.
Fulbright Scholar Award, Canada-U.S. Fulbright Program, 1994-95.
Raised a total of $58,580 from various organizations, including two foundations (Tinker Foundation, New York, and German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington), for the May 16-17, 1996 Toronto conference on "Monetary and Financial Integration in an Expanding (N)AFTA" and the subsequent publication program.
I have consulted for short terms for a number of government agencies (CEA, GAO, HUD, FHLBB, FHLMC) and a few private entities, such as The Conference Board, devoted to research on public policy.
PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS AND POSITIONS:
American Economic Association, American Finance Association, National Tax Association. Associate editor, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1971-1974. Member of National Tax Association's Committee on Taxation of Financial Institutions, 1974-75. Member of the Institut International des Finances Publiques 1972-80. Member, Brookings Panel on Economic Activity (1977 and 1989) and Senior Advisor (1978-90). Member of the (NBER) Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, since 1984. Administrator and sole selector from nominations received, Horstmann International Fellowship Program, since 1984. Associate Editor, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987-92. Further biographical details are available in Who's Who in America, 44th and subsequent editions.
I. a. Monographs
Technical Studies of Mortgage Default Risk.
Cornell University Urban Development
Research Center, Ithaca, NY, 1971, pp. vi, 77. (Abstract: JEL, June 1973, p. 612).
The Economics of Mortgages with Variable Interest Rates. FHLMC Monographs:
No. 2, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Washington, D.C., 1973, pp. 21.
The Reaction of Financial and Other Markets to Uncertain News, Tamkang Chair
Lectures Series 90, Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan, 1991, pp. 144.
... with Joseph P. Daniels, Economic Summit Declarations 1975-89: Examining the
Written Record of International Cooperation, Princeton Studies in International
Finance, No. 72, Internatio-nal Finance Section, Princeton University, Feb. 1992, pp.
I. b. Books Edited
... with Bennet Harrison and Ann R. Horowitz, Patterns of Racial Discrimination,
Vol. I: Housing, pp. xiv, 220; and Vol. II: Employment and Income, pp. xiv, 254,
Lexington Books (Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath, 1974). (Abstract: JEL, December
1974, p.l, 431, Review: JEL, December 1975, pp. 1,372-74.)
Social Security versus Private Saving, pp. xx, 435, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger
Publishing Co., 1979. (Review: JEL, Dec. 1980, pp. 1627-30; JMCB, Aug. 1981,
The Government and Capital Formation, pp. xxiv, 535, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger
Publishing Co., 1980. (Review: JMCB, Feb. 1984, pp. 125-28).
Capital, Efficiency and Growth, pp. xx, 561, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing
Co., 1980. (Review: JEL, June 1981, pp. 592-93; JMCB, Aug. 1983, 402-05).
International Money and Credit: The Policy Roles, pp. xi, 596, Washington, D.C.:
International Monetary Fund, 1983.
... with Gerhard Fels, A Supply-Side Agenda for Germany, pp. vi, 439, Berlin
Heidelberg New York: Springer, 1989. (Listed: JEL, Sept. 1989, p. 1,246;
reviewed JEL, Dec. 1990, pp. 1736-38).
Acting Under Uncertainty: Multidisciplinary Conceptions, pp. xvii, 485, Boston:
Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990. (Listed: JEL, Sept. 1991, p. 1,235.)
Integrating Economies: Banking and Finance in the NAFTA Countries and Chile,
Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1997, pp. xviii, 266.
Between Global Standards and National Politics: Banking and Finance Regulations
in the NAFTA Countries, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997, pp, xxi, 264.
II. Articles and Notes (*)
II. a. PUBLIC FINANCE, STABILIZATION, AND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
...with Dennis C. Mueller, "The Pareto Optimal Approach to Income Distribution:
A Fiscal Application," American Economic Review, September 1971, 61, pp.
628-37. (Abstract: JEL, December 1971, p. 1,405).
...with Henry J. Aaron, "The Inefficiency of Transfers in Kind: The Case of Housing
Assistance." Western Economic Journal, June 1971, 9, pp. 184-91. (Abstract: JEL,
December 1971, p. 1,427).
...with James M. Boughton, "Stabilization Goals and
the Appropriateness of Fiscal
Policy During the Eisenhower and Kennedy-Johnson Administrations." Public
Finance Quarterly, January 1973, 1, pp. 5-28, a research abstract of this article
appeared previously in Western Economic Journal, March 1972, 10, p. 105.
"Welfare Maximization: Samuelson's Analysis with Public and Private Goods,"
Public Finance Quarterly, October 1973, 1, pp. 426-36.
"New Potential Output Estimates for Economic Policy," pp. 186-95 in 1974
Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical
Association. An earlier version was published in The 1974 Economic Report of the
President: Hearings Before the Joint Economic Committee, February 1974, Part 1,
*...with Lydia Segal and Jack Alterman, "The Tax
Effect in Measures of Economic
Well-Being," Monthly Labor Review, 97, November 1974, pp. 45-50.
"Individual Income Taxation and Inflation," National Tax Journal, 27 (March 1975),
pp. 117-25. (Abstract: JEL, December 1975, p. 1, 617).
"Stabilization Characteristics of Unemployment Insurance," Industrial and Labor
Relations Review, 29, April 1976, pp. 363-76. An earlier version appeared in
American Statistical Association, 1975 Proceedings of the Business and Economic
Statistics Section, pp. 10-19.
"Corporate Taxes and Financing Under Continuing Inflation," pp. 225-54 in William
Fellner, ed. Contemporary Economic Problems, Washington, D.C.: American
Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1976.
*"Comments on Estimating Potential Output in a Model Framework," pp. 28-30 in
U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee; Achieving the Goals of the Employment
Act of 1946 - Thirteenth Anniversary Review, Vol. l: Employment, Paper No. 4,
"The Rhetoric of Tax Reform," pp. 27-35 in Federal Budget Policy, Employment and
Inflation, Proceedings of Tax Foundation's 28th National Conference, New York,
"The Effect of Debt Financing and Government Debt on Capital Intensiveness in the
Private Economy," pp. 57-63 in American Statistical Association, 1977 Proceedings
of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, Part I, 1978. (An earlier version
appeared under the title "The Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S.
Output Potential," pp. 37-46 in Lilly Conference on Recent Developments in
Economics, April 21-23, 1977, Indiana University, Bloomington).
"The Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S. Output Potential,"
Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, June 1978, pp. 989-1,001.
"The Effects of the Changing Size and Composition of Government Purchases on
Potential Output," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 62, February 1980, pp.
74-80. (Abstract: JEL, September 1980, p. 1, 423).
"Public versus Private Spending: The Long-Term Consequences of Direct Crowding
Out," pp. 243-63 in G. M. von Furstenberg, ed. The Government and Capital
Formation (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1980).
"Inflation, Taxes, and Welfare in LDCs," Public
Finance, Vol. 35, No. 2/1980, pp.
183-212; summarized in Finance and Development, September 1980 (Vol. 17, No.
3), pp. 38-30 ("Double-Digit Inflation: A Wasteful Tax for the Developing World").
(Abstract: JEL, June 1981, p. 906).
"The Effects of the Changing Size and Composition of Government Purchases on
Potential Output: A Reply," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, August
1982, pp. 527-28.
"U.S. Budget and Money Growth: From Business as Usual to a Breach of the Policy
Rules?" National Tax Journal, Vol. 36, December 1983, pp. 443-57. (Abstract: JEL,
June 1984, p.937.)
... with R. Jeffery Green and Jin-Ho Jeong, "Have Taxes Led Government
Expenditures: The United States as a Test Case?" Journal of Public Policy, Vol. 5,
No. 3 (1985), pp. 321-48.
... with R. Jeffery Green and Jin-Ho Jeong, "Tax
and Spend or Spend and Tax?"
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 68, May 1986, pp. 179-88. (Abstract: JEL,
March 1987, p. 566.)
"Taxes: A License to Spend or a Late Charge?" in Rudolph G. Penner, ed., The Great
Fiscal Experiment of the 1980s, Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute, 1990, pp.
II. b. INVESTMENT, SAVING, CAPITAL, AND GROWTH
...with Joseph P. Kalt, "The Capital Shortage: Concept and Measurement," Journal
of Economics and Business, Spring/Summer 1977, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 198-210.
...with Burton G. Malkiel, "The Government and Capital Formation: A Survey of
Recent Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 15, September 1977, pp.
"Corporate Investment: Does Market Valuation Matter in the Aggregate?" Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 1977, pp. 347-97, pp. 405-06. (Abstract: JEL, June
1978, p. 878).
"Social Security Versus Private Saving and Insurance," Geneva Papers on Risk and
Insurance, No. 10, November 1978, pp. 44-49.
...with Burton G. Malkiel and Harry S. Watson. "Expectations, Tobin's 'q', and
Industry Investment," Journal of Finance, May 1979, 34(2), pp. 549-61.
... with Burton G. Malkiel and Harry S. Watson.
"The Distribution of Investment
Between Industries: A Microeconomic Application of the 'q' Ratio," pp. 395-460 in
G. M. von Furstenberg, ed. Capital, Efficiency and Growth (Cambridge, MA:
*"Comment," pp. 37-38 in U.S. Department of Commerce,
Growth Policy for the
Eighties, Proceedings of a Workshop on Supply-Side Economics, February 14, 1980.
"Private Saving," American Economic Review, May 1980, 70(2), pp. 177-81.
"Domestic Determinants of Net U.S. Foreign Investment," International Monetary
Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 27, No. 4, December 1980, pp. 637-78. (Abstract: JEL,
September 1981, p. 1,434).
"Saving," pp. 327-90, in Henry J. Aaron and Joseph A. Pechman, eds. How Taxes
Affect Economic Behavior (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1981).
"On Strengthening the Links Between Changes in Household Wealth, Saving and
Business Investment," Looking Ahead (National Planning Association), Winter 1981,
Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 5-13; an expanded version of this paper was published in Saving
for Retirement, Report on a Mini-Conference on Saving held for the 1981 White
House Conference on Aging (Washington, D.C.: American Council of Life Insurance,
1982), pp. 162-86.
"The Uncertain Effects of Inflationary Finance on Growth in Developing Countries,"
Public Finance, Vol. 38, No. 2/1983, pp. 232-66. (Abstract: JEL, September 1984,
"High-Tech Industries and Economic Growth," Business
Economics, Vol. 21, July
1986, pp. 43-45.
"Comment" on "Measuring Household Saving: Recent Experience from the Flow of
Funds Perspective" by John F. Wilson et al., in Robert E. Lipsey and Helen Stone
Tice, eds. The Measurement of Saving, Investment, and Wealth, Chicago and
London: Chicago University Press, 1989. pp. 145-52.
II. c. MACROECONOMIC MODELS, TECHNIQUES, AND EVALUATIONS
...with R. Jeffery Green, "Supply-Side Modeling from Bits and Pieces," American
Economic Review, 76 (2), May 1986, pp. 37-42.
"Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: A Survey of its Treatment," The Geneva Papers on
Risk and Insurance, January 1988, Vol. 13, No. 46, pp. 1-11.
...with Jin-Ho Jeong, "Owning Up to Uncertainty in Macroeconomics." The Geneva
Papers on Risk and Insurance, January 1988, Vol. 13, No. 46, pp. 12-90.
...with Esfandiar Maasoumi, "Macroeconomic Implications of the Information
Revolution," American Economic Review, 78 (2), May 1988, pp. 178-81.
"Life Cycle Saving: A General Paradigm or a Caricature of the Petite Bourgeoisie?"
Annals d'Economie et de Statistique, Janvier/Mars 1988, No. 9: Special Issue on
Life Cycle Theory, pp. 183-98.
"Neither Gullible Nor Unteachable Be: Signal Extraction and the Optimal Speed of
Learning from Uncertain News," in George M. von Furstenberg, ed., Acting Under
Uncertainty, Kluwer 1990, pp. 301-24.
Scoring the Success of Sanctions," Open Economies Review, Vol. 2, No. 3, 1991,
...with Joseph P. Daniels, "Policy Undertakings by the Seven `Summit' Countries:
Ascertaining the Degree of Compliance," in Allan H. Meltzer and Charles I. Plosser,
eds., Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 35 (Autumn 1991), pp.
267-308. (Summary: JEL, September 1992, p. 1,814).
"Accountability and a Metric for Credibility and Compliane," Journal of Institutional
and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Vol. 151, No. 2, June 1995, pp. 304-325.
II. d. DOMESTIC MONEY, INFLATION CONTROL, FINANCE AND DEBT
"Risk Shifting Through Debt Issuance and the Determination of the Optimal Financial
Structure of Corporations," Konjunkturpolitik, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1968, pp. 170-88.
(Abstract: JEL, March 1969, pp. 319-20).
...with Bruno Oudet, "The Valuation of Common Stocks During Periods of Inflation,"
Zeitschrift fuer Nationaloekonomie, 1973(33) pp. 67-78. (Abstract JEL June 1974,
pp. 799), and "Common Stock Values and Rates of Return During Periods of
Inflation," Akron Business and Economic Review, Winter 1973, 4, pp. 18-21.
"The Equilibrium Spread Between Variable Rates and Fixed Rates on Long-Term
Financing Instruments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 8,
December 1973, pp. 807-19.
"Flow-of-Funds Analysis and the Economic Outlook,"
Annals of Social and
Economic Measurement, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1977, pp. 1-25. (Abstract: JEL, September
1977, pp. 1,230-31).
...with Burton G. Malkiel, "Financial Analysis in an Inflationary Environment,"
Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, No. 2, May 1977, pp. 575-88.
*"Comment on Wallich, Wright, Kaufman and Minsky," pp. 208-09 in Edward I.
Altman and Arnold W. Sametz, eds. Financial Crises: Institutions and Markets in a
Fragile Environment, New York: Wiley, 1977.
...with William H. White, "The Inflation Process in Industrial Countries Individually
and Combined," Kyklos, Vol. 33, 1980, Fasc. 2, pp. 261-86. (Abstract: JEL, March
1981, p. 423).
"Financial Innovations in Developed Economies and Financial Reforms in the
Process of Economic Development," pp. 6-48 in Korea Federation of Banks, First
International Symposium on Financial Development, Financial Innovation and
Financial Reform, Seoul: KFB, Dec. 1984. Book reissued 1985 with comments and
replies in hardcover under the same title after the conference, with my paper on pp.
13-46 and my replies on pp. 52-58 and 59- 60.
*"Hayek's Commodity Constitution for Money: The 'Standard', Useful but not
Perfect," Economic Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 5, June/July 1986, pp. 32-33.
"Stock/Flow Ratios with Money and Debt: What Can
Be Learned from the Breakup
of Past Relationships in the United States?" Kredit and Kapital, Vol. 20, No. 4, 1987,
"Price Stability: How Canada's Governor Crow Approached It," Journal of Policy
Modeling, forthcoming 1997.
II. e. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
"Price Deflators for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)," Review of Public Data Use,
Vol. 9, No. 1, March 1981, pp. 1-20.
*"Simulated Reserve Currency Performance Indicates Investment Quality of the
SDR," IMF Survey, January 26, 1981, pp. 26-28.
...with Robert G. Murphy, "An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Level of SDR
Holdings in Non-Oil Developing Countries," International Monetary Fund Staff
Papers, Vol. 28, No. 2, June 1981, pp. 310-37. (Abstract: JEL, March 1982, p. 435.)
"Incentives for International Currency Diversification by U.S. Financial Investors,"
International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 28, No. 3, September 1981, pp.
477-94. (Abstract: JEL, June 1982, p. 926).
*Comment on C. Fred Bergsten, "The Multiple Reserve Currency System in the
1980s," pp. 78-91 in Gary C. Hufbauer, ed. The International Framework for Money
and Banking in the 1980s (Washington, D.C.: The International Law Institute,
Georgetown University, 1981).
"New Estimates of the Demand for Non-Gold Reserves Under Floating Exchange
Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1, April 1982, pp.
"Changes in U.S. Interest Rates and Their Effects on European Interest and Exchange
Rates," pp. 257-82 in David Bigman and Teizo Taya, eds. Exchange Rate and Trade
Instability: Causes, Consequences and Policies (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1983).
"Internationally Managed Moneys," American Economic Review, Papers and
Proceedings, Vol. 73, May 1983, pp. 54-58.
"Domestic Determinants of the Current Account Balance of the United States,"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, August 1983, pp. 401-25.
*Comments on Professor Guttentag and Herring, "International
Vulnerability and Crisis," in M. L. Wachter and S. M. Wachter, eds., Removing
Obstacles to Economic Growth, University of Pennsylvania Press, 1984, pp. 416-19.
"Adjustment with IMF Lending," Journal of International
Money and Finance, Vol. 4,
No. 2, June 1985, pp. 209-22. (Abstract: JEL, June 1986, p. 1081.)
"The IMF as Market-Maker for Official Business Between Nations," p. 111-26 in
Robert J. Myers, ed., The Political Morality of the International Monetary Fund,
Ethics and Foreign Policy Series, Vol. 3, New York: Transaction Books, 1987.
"Internationally Managed Money Supply," pp. 117-26 in Robert Z. Aliber, ed., The
Reconstruction of International Monetary Arrangements, London: Macmillan Press,
...with Bang Nam Jeon, "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1989:2, pp. 125-67 and pp. 176-79.
...with Bang Nam Jeon, "Commentary," in Gerald P. Dwyer and R. W. Hafer, eds.,
The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility and Chaos, Boston: Kluwer Academic
Publishers, 1990, pp. 69-79.
... with Bang Nam Jeon, "Growing International Co-movement in Stock Price
Indexes," Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, Vol. 30, No. 3, Autumn
1990, pp. 15-30.
*"Comments on `Creating a European Central Bank after 1992'," in Paul J.J. Welfens,
ed., European Monetary Integration, Berlin, New York: Springer, 1991, pp. 48-52.
"SDRs" (Special Drawing Rights), in Peter Newman,
Murray Milgate, and John
Eatwell (eds.) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, Basingstoke,
England: The Macmillan Press, 1992, Vol. 3, pp. 508-509.
... with Joseph P. Daniels, "Can You Trust the G-7 Promises?" International
Economic Insights, Vol. 3(5), September/October 1992, pp. 24-27.
"External Debt Buyback: Scorned Too Much?" Kredit
und Kapital, Vol. 26, No. 3,
1993, pp. 337-346.
"Comment" (on Ito and Lin, "Price Volatility and Volume Spillover: Tokyo and New
York Stock Markets"), in Jeffrey A. Frankel, ed., The Internationalization of Equity
Markets, Chicago University Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research,
1994, pp. 338-343.
"International Capital Mobility: Cui Bono?" Les Journées AFSE 1995, Association
Francaise de Science Economique, Nantes, June 8/9, 1995, Conference Proceedings,
... with Michele Fratianni, "Indicators of Financial Development," North American
Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1, Spring 1996, pp. 19-29.
"Les USA souhaitent la bienvenue aux premiers pas hésitants d’une monnaie forte,"
L’ Euro: La Revue de la Monnaie Unique, No. 5, septembre/octobre 1997, pp. 9-11.
II. f. CAPITAL MOBILITY AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF NORTH
... with David P. Teolis, "Growth and Income Distribution Benefits of North
American Monetary Union with Mexico," North American Journal of Economics and
Finance, special issue on NAFTA: U.S. Manufacturing and an Emerging Mexico,
Vol. 4, No. 1, Spring 1993, pp. 127-143.
... with David P. Teolis, "Reducing Real Exchange Rate Variability and Drift:
Mexico on the Way to North American Monetary Union?" North American Journal of
Economics and Finance, Vol. 4, No. 2, Fall 1993, pp. 253-269.
"Capital and the Division of Production: Global at Last?" Challenge: The Magazine
of Economic Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 5, September/October 1994, pp. 4-10.
"La movilidad del capital en los países en desarrollo: Marx, Prebisch y lo que
occurre ahora" ["Capital Mobility with Developing Countries: Marx, Prebisch, and
What is Going on Now"], El Trimestre Económico (Mexico), Vol. 61(4), No. 244,
Octubre-Diciembre de 1994, pp. 603-39.
"Introduction [of journal issue guest-edited by author]: Financial Infrastructure
Development in the NAFTA Countries," North American Journal of Economics and
Finance, 7(2), 1996, pp. 111-114.
... with Birgit Höfer, "Regional Financial Integration in Europe: A Blueprint for
North America?" Pp. 82-124 in Regulation and Supervision of Financial Institutions
in the NAFTA Countries and Beyond. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.
... with Birgit Höfer, "Financial Integration in North America and Europe Among
Countries at Different Stages of Development," forthcoming in Stanley W. Black, ed.,
Competition and Convergence in Financial Markets. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science,
"From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration: A Review
Essay," Open Economies Review, 9(1), January 1998, pp. 53-84. (in press)
II. g. EFFICIENCY AND DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS
"Risk Structures and the Distribution of Benefits within the FHA Home Mortgage
Insurance Program," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 1970, 2, pp
303-22. (Abstract: JEL, March 1971, pp. 336-67).
"A Model of Optimal Plant Integration in the Presence of Employee Discrimination,"
Review of Regional Studies, Spring 1972, 2, pp. 72-85.
*"The Interrelation Between Labor and Capital Components of Racial Income
Differences," Journal of Political Economy, January/February 1974, 82, pp. 152-62.
"Distribution Effects of GNMA Home Mortgage Purchases and Commitments under
the Tandem Plans," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 1976, 8, pp.
*"The Impact of the GNMA Tandem Plans: Reply," Journal
of Money, Credit, and
Banking, August 1978, 10, pp. 385-87.
"The Choice of Housing: Efficiency versus Redistribution," Policy Analysis, Spring
1979, 5(2), pp. 141-53.
...with Bang Nam Jeon, "Techniques for Measuring the Welfare Effects of Protection:
Appraising the Choices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 8, No. 2, Summer 1986,
...with Bang Nam Jeon, "The 'New' Protectionism, its Theoretical Rationales and
Policy Implications in North and South," Ch. 13 in Hans Singer, Neelamber Hatti,
and Rameshwar Tandon, eds., New Protectionism and Restructuring, Vol. IV, Part I,
in New World Order Series, New Delhi: Ashish Publishing House, 1988, pp.
"Pareto-Optimal Privatization for Gaining Political Support," Kredit und Kapital,
Vol. 24, No. 2, 1991, pp. 147-74.
"Generating Support for Rapid Privatization of Socialized Industry," Zagadniena
Gospodarowania [Problems of Economic Management], Uniwersytet Szczecinski,
Zeszyty Naukowe [Science Book] No. 94, 1992, Szczecin (Poland), pp. 83-116.
"Comment on: Government Support for Restructuring the East German Economy:
Capital or Labor Subsidies?" in Paul J.J. Welfens (ed.) Economic Aspects of
German Unification, Berlin and New York: Springer Verlag, 1992, pp. 286-96.
"Overstaffing as an Endgame and Prelude to the Employment Collapse in Eastern
Germany?" Communist Economies & Economic Transformation (UK), Vol. 7, No. 3,
1995, pp. 299-318.
... with Nicholas O. Spangenberg, "The Political Temptations of Rationing by
Insiders," Public Choice, Vol. 88, Nos. 1-2, July 1996, 69-81.
II. h. MORTGAGE FINANCING
"Default Risk on FHA-Insured Home Mortgages as a Function of the Terms of
Financing: A Quantitative Analysis," Journal of Finance, June 1969, 24, pp. 459-77.
(Abstract: JEL, June 1969, pp. 762-63).
"Interstate Differences in Mortgage Lending Risk: An Analysis of the Causes,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, June 1970, 5, pp. 229-42. (Abstract:
JEL, June 1971, p. 733).
"The Investment Quality of Home Mortgages," Journal of Risk and Insurance,
September 1970, 37, pp. 437-45. (Abstract: JEL,March 1971, p. 339).
"The Economics of Variable Interest Rate Mortgages," Federal Home Loan Bank
Board Journal, June 1972, 5, pp. 8-11.
"Should Equity Kickers Be Permitted in Home Mortgages?" Indiana Business
Review, July/August 1972, pp. 23-31.
...with R. Jeffery Green, "The Effect of Income and Race on the Quality of Home
Mortgages: A Case Study for Pittsburgh," in Patterns of Racial Discrimination, Vol.
1, 1974, pp. 165-79.
...with R. Jeffery Green, "Estimation of Delinquency Risk in Home Mortgage
Portfolios," American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Journal, Spring
1974, 2, pp. 5-19.
*...with R. Jeffery Green, "Home Mortgage Delinquencies: A Cohort Analysis,"
Journal of Finance, December 1974, 29, pp. 1,545-48. (Abstract: JEL, June 1975, p.
...with R. Jeffery Green, "The Effects of Race and Age of Housing on Mortgage
Delinquency Risk," Urban Studies, Vol. 12, 1975, pp. 85-89.
"Stabilization and Financial Innovation," pp. 5-13
in U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research, Occasional
Papers in Housing and Community Affairs, Vol. 5, and elements of panel discussion,
pp. 38-43, U.S. G.P.O., July 1979.
*Comments on a paper by Mary K. Plantes and David Small dealing with
"Macro-economic Consequences of Federal Credit Activity," pp. 27-30 in
Congressional Budget Office, Conference on the Economics of Federal Credit
Activity, Part I - Proceedings, Special Study, December 1980.
*"Comment on Herbert Kaufman 'FNMA and the Housing Cycle'", Supplement to a
Report by the Comptroller General of the United States: The Federal National
Mortgage Association in a Changing Economic Environment, GAO/RCED-85-102A,
July 17, 1985, pp. 75-82.
II. i. HOUSING AND URBAN ECONOMICS
Three studies in the Report of the President's Committee on Urban Housing:
Technical Studies, Vol. l: Housing Needs and Federal Housing Programs,
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. G.P.O., 1968), pp. 103-65.
(l) "The Impact of Rent Formulas and Eligibility Standards in Federally Assisted
(2) "Improving the Feasibility of Homeownership for Lower-Income Families
Through Subsidized Mortgage Financing;"
(3) ...with Howard R. Moskof, "Federally Assisted Rental Housing Programs."
"Place of Residence and Employment Opportunities
Within a Metropolitan Area,"
Journal of Economic Issues, June 1971, 5, pp. 101-16.
*"Distribution of Federally Assisted Rental Housing," Journal of the American
Institute of Planners, September 1971, 37, pp. 326-30. An extended version was
published by U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, The Economics of Federal
Subsidy Programs, Part 5: Housing Subsidies, GPO: October 9, 1972, pp. 631-41.
"An Appraisal of Recent Forecasts of Housing Starts," Business Economics, May
1974, 9, pp. 60-63.
...with Eric B. Herr, "The Normal Demand for Housing Completions and the Stock
Adjustment Process in Housing Starts," Journal of Economics and Business, 27,
Winter 1975, pp. 131-40.
"The Impact of Government Housing and Credit Programs on the Cost of Housing,"
pp. 277-309 in The Cost of Housing, Proceedings of the Third Annual Conference,
Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, (December 6-7, 1977, published 1978).
II. i. MISCELLANEOUS
...with Robert C. Gilkison, "The Use of Regression Analysis to Estimate Accrual of
Capital Grants Earned in the Urban Renewal Program," Federal Accountant,
December 1968, 17, pp. 21-30.
*...with Nicolas N. Noe, "The Upward Bias in the Consumer Price Index Due to
Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, November/December 1972, 80, pp.
...with Nicolas Spulber, "Is There an Economic System Based on Sovereignty of
Each Consumer?" Zeitschrift fuer Nationaloekonomie, 1973 (33), pp. 361-74.
(Abstract: JEL, September 1974, pp. 1,171-72).
...with Nicolas Spulber, "Welfare Criteria for Comparing Changes Within and
Between Economic Systems," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1974-4, 110, pp.
"Oil Story," Akron Business and Economic Review, Fall 1974, 5, 21-22.
*Comment on Renshaw's Paper on "Energy Policy," Growth and Change, January
1979, 10(1), pp. 87-89.
"Overview of the International Monetary System," Second Panama Banking
Convention Report (April 25-27, 1979), published by the Asociacion Bancaria de
Panama, 1980, pp. 35-38.
*Comment on "Futures Markets and the Supply of Storage with Rational
Expectations," The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 2, No. 4, Winter 1982, pp.
*Comment on Robert Z. Lawrence, "The Impact of Foreign Trade on Employment by
Industry," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1983:1, pp. 166-69.
"The International Outlook," in The Conference Board, New York Research Bulletin
No. 151, Economic Outlook, 1984, 1983, p. 16.
"Those Foreign Loans: Are They Bleeding Us Dry?"
The MGIC Newsletter,
Jan./Feb. 1984, pp. 1-3.
"Capital Formation: National and International Considerations for the Long Term,"
pp. 23-25 in The Economic Road to the Twenty-First Century, The Conference
Board, New York, Research Bulletin, No. 198, 1986.
"A Dissenting View," pp. 40-43 in London Conference on Taxes and Growth,
Proceedings of a conference held at the St. James Court Hotel, Buckingham Gate,
London, on Oct. 14, 1986. New York: Manhattan Institute, 1986.
"The Recession Isn't Coming - Honest!" The International Economy (Magazine),
Jan./Feb. 1988, pp. 106-07.
"What 'We' Believe In," pp. 101-06 in Gerhard Fels and George M. von Furstenberg,
eds., A Supply-Side Agenda for Germany, Springer 1989.
"Bonn auf dem Weg in eine soziale Staatswirtschaft?" Orientierungen zur Wirtschaft
und Gesellschaftspolitik (Ludwig-Erhard-Stiftung), No. 40, June 1989, pp. 25-27.
"Die zänkischen Schwestern: Internationaler Währungsfonds und Weltbank ringen um
ihre Selbstbehauptung," Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, September 23, 1989, No.
221 (full page article), p. 13.
"Property Rights on the Amazon Frontier: Comment," Journal of Institutional and
Theoretical Economics, Vol. 151(1) March 1995, pp. 112-116.
III. Reviews, Discussions, Testimony, Interviews, op-ed
of James C. T. Mao, Quantitative Analysis of Financial Decisions, in Journal of
Finance, June 1970, 25, pp. 715-17.
of Henry J. Aaron, Shelter and Subsidies, and Fred E. Case, Inner-City Housing and
Private Enterprises, in JEL, December 1973, 11, pp. 1,420-22.
of Richard E. Wagner, The Public Economy, in Public Choice, Spring 1974, 17, pp.
Selected Bibliographies published by the Council of Planning Librarians, July 1972:
No. 297, Discrimination in Employment, pp. 24, and No. 298, Discrimination in
Housing, pp. 7.
"A Proposal for Substituting a Tax Credit for the Deductibility of Mortgage Interest
by Homeowners," in Taxation with Representation, Tax Reform Proposals for
Consideration in 1972, Arlington, 1972, pp. 185-89.
of James Kearl, Kenneth Rosen, and Craig Swan, "Relationships Between the
Mortgage Instruments, The Demand for Housing and Mortgage Credit: A Review of
Empirical Studies," pp. 112-13 in New Mortgage Designs for Stable Housing in an
Inflationary Environment, ed. by Donald Lessard and Franco Modigliani, Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No. 14, 1976.
"Capital Requirements, Energy and Growth in the Remainder of the 1970s," Paper
submitted to Working Party 2, Meeting on Medium-Term Growth Projections,
February 11-12, 1976, Paris, OECD Documents CPE/WP2(76)2, co-authored with
Burton G. Malkiel, pp. 34.
Testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs,
Hearings, September 20, 1976: GNMA Tandem Plan, pp. 78-81, pp. 99-105.
"Comment on the Kemp-Roth Bill," written views invited by Chairman Ullman of the
House Ways and Means Committee, July 17, 1978, for subsequent publication in the
Committee Print, Tax Reductions, September 8, 1978, pp. 99-100.
of Phillip Cagan and Robert E. Lipsey, The Financial Effects of Inflation, in JMCB,
February 1980, 12, pp. 105-06.
"Toward a More Productive Future: Capital Formation
and Economic Growth; An
Interview with George M. von Furstenberg," pp. 2-8 in American Council of Life
Insurance, Council Review, Vol. 5, No. 5, July 1980.
of Martin Feldstein, ed. The American Economy in Transition, p. 49 in Finance and
Development, December 1981, Vol. 18, No. 4.
"Federal Tax Policies to Rebuild the Economy During the 1980s," Panel discussion,
pp. 18-21 in National Tax Association, Proceedings of the Seventy-Third Annual
Conference, 1980. New Orleans, November 17, 1980, NTA-TIA, published 1981.
of Public Policy and Capital Formation, A (1981) Study of the Federal Reserve
System in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. XV, February 1983, pp.
of Martin Feldstein, Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, in Journal of
Economic Literature, Vol. XXII, June 1984, pp. 597-98.
"A Step Ahead, (A Review of the) 1983/84 Report of the German Council of
Economic Experts," Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft, 1984, Vol 140,
No. 2, pp. 371-79.
Television discussion with two German participants
(Professor Hankel and state
secretary Dr. Hans Tietmeyer, Ministry of Finance) of international trade and
exchange rate issues and prospects for the dollar in the global monetary system.
Cologne, Sunday June 8, 1986, 9:00-9:45 p.m., WDR studios, live, "Third Program."
"Nonrubber Footwear: The Effects of Protection on South Korea and Brazil," (with
Bang Nam Jeon) in Maurice Ernst and Jimmy W. Wheeler, The Impact of Industrial
Country Protectionism on Selected LDCs, Indianapolis: Hudson Institute Report No.
HI-3863-RR, January 1987, pp. B-1 to B-72.
of Henry J. Aaron et al., Economic Choices,
1987, in Journal of Economic Literature,
Vol. XXV, September 1987, pp. 1343-45.
of Mark Precious, Rational Expectations, Non-Market Clearing and Investment
Theory, 1987, in Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXVII, March 1989, pp.
of Dieter Helm, ed., The Economic Borders of the State, 1989, in Journal of Public
Policy, Vol. 9, No. 4 (1989), pp. 516-17.
of Richard N. Cooper, Barry Eichengreen, C. Randall Henning, Gerald Holtham, and
Robert D. Putnam, Can Nations Agree? Issues in International Economic
Cooperation, 1989, in Society of Government Economists Bulletin, February, 1990,
Vol. 22, No. 1, p. 3.
"Reviving East German Property," Wall Street Journal/Europe, March 8, 1990,
op-ed, p. 6.
Interview on MoneyLine - National Radio, August 14, 1990, 2:09 - 2:15 p.m.
of Rudiger Dornbusch, Exchange Rates and Inflation, 1988, in Economic Journal,
Vol. 100, No. 403 (December 1990), pp. 1,359-1,361.
of Richard D. Winfield, The Just Economy, 1988, in Nous, Vol. 27, No. 1, March
1993, pp. 97-99.
of Groenveld, K.; Maks, J.A.H., and Muysken, J. (eds.), Economic Policy and the
Market Process, 1990, in Journal of Economics, 1991, 53(2), pp. 240-41.
of Rudiger Dornbusch and Mario Draghi, eds., Public Debt Management: Theory and
History, 1990, Journal of Public Policy, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1991, pp. 244-46.
of Sinn G. and H.-W. Sinn, Kaltstart. Volkswirtschaftliche Aspekte der deutschen
Vereinigung, 1991, in Journal of Economics, 1992, 56(2), pp. 241-245, (in German).
Radio Discussions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): 1 of 2
guests, WTIU Bloomington, Margaret Joseph Program, October 8, 1993, 7:00-8:00
p.m.; sole guest presenter and question taker, WGN radio, Chicago, Jeff Bertrand
Show, November 6, 1993, 9:05-9:30 p.m., Central Time.
Television program for distribution to PPS member stations taped by WTIU
Bloomington, February 4, 1994: Pro & Con, a half-hour program hosted by President
My views on monetary union in North America were reported in Financial Post,
"North American Currency Touted by Economist," May 31, 1995, p.5; The Toronto
Star, David Crane ,"Trade Ties Push Canada Closer to U.S.," May 31, 1995, p. E.1;
Canadian Business, Column by Ian McGugan: "Cross-Border Bucks: Is a Common
Currency in Our Future? Jan. 1996, Vol. 69, No. 1; The Houston Chronicle, August
27, 1995, p. 5; The Baltimore Sun, August 28, 1995, p. 14C; The Buffalo Evening
News, October 15, 1995, p. 13A.
One of two presenters/respondents on one-hour radio call-in show on the subject of
"Monetary Union in North America: A Good Idea?" Lindy Thorsen, host, CBC
Radio, Regina Saskatchewan, 2:00-3:00 EST, March 5, 1996. The other participant
was David H. Orchard, Chair, Citizens Concerned About Free Trade.
"Default Risk on FHA-Insured Home Mortgages...,"
Brookings Institution Reprint
No. 163, 1969.
"The Inefficiency of Transfers in Kind...," Brookings Institution, Reprint No. 210,
"Distribution of Federally Assisted Rental Housing," Congressional Record,
November 8, 1971, S17755-58.
"Variable Rate Mortgages: Leveling Housing Fund Flows," The Money Manager,
July 24, 1972, 2, pp. 11-13; cont. July 31, 1972, 2, pp. 15, 51.
The Economics of Mortgages with Variable Interest Rates, as Annex III to Document
CMF/WP1 (74)l of Working Party No. 1 on Housing Finance of the Committee on
Financial Markets, OECD, Paris, May 31, 1974.
"A Model of Optimal Plant Integration," as Chapter 27 in Grants and Exchange,
Martin Pfaff, ed., North-Holland, 1976, pp. 408-22.
"Distribution Effects of GNMA Home Mortgage Purchases and Commitments Under
the Tandem Plans," pp. 82-98 in GNMA Tandem Plan, Hearings before the
Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, September 20-22,
1976; also pp. 244-266 in Kenneth E. Boulding and Thomas F. Wilson, eds.
Redistribution Through the Financial System, New York: Praeger, 1978.
"Financial Analysis in an Inflationary Environment," The C.F.A. Digest, Fall 1977,
Vol. 7, No. 4 (summary).
"The Government and Capital Formation: A Survey of Recent Issues," American
Enterprise Institute Reprint No. 83, February 1978.
"Corporate Investments: Does Market Valuation Matter in the Aggregate?" The
C.F.A. Digest, Spring 1978, Vol. 8, No. 2 (summary).
"Expectations, Tobin's 'q', and Industry Investment," National Bureau of Economic
Research Reprint No. 54, 1980.
"Growing International Co-Movement in Stock Price Indexes," The C.F.A. Digest,
Spring 1991, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 46-48 (summary).
"Adjustment with IMF Lending," in H.W. Singer, N. Hatti, and R. Tandon, eds.,
Adjustment and Liberalization in the Third World, New World Order Series: Vol.
12. New Dehli: Indus Publishing 6, 1991, pp. 283-301.
"The Pareto Optimal Approach to Income Redistribution:
A Fiscal Application," in
Dennis C. Mueller, ed., The Public Choice Approach to Politics, Edward Elgar,
1993, Ch. 17, pp. 305-314.
SEMINAR AND CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS (last 15 years only)
October 26-28, 1982, Economic Planning Agency, Japanese Government, Tokyo. Presented paper on "Changes in U.S. Interest Rates and their Effects on European Interest and Exchange Rates," and discussed two other papers at the International seminar on the EPA World Economic Model.
December 28-31, 1982, American Economic Association, ASSA meetings, New York. Presented papers on "Internationally Managed Money" and "The Uncertain Effects of Inflationary Finance on Growth in Developing Countries," and discussed papers presented in a session on "Monetary Stabilization under Rational Expectations."
March 24-25, 1983, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.: Organized international conference in the Executive Board Room on "International Money, Credit, and the SDR" -- the resulting conference volume, edited by me, identifies me as responsible for "organization, content, and external liaison" for this conference.
May 1-3, 1983, Wharton/Reliance Symposium, "Removing Obstacles to Economic Growth," University of Pennsylvania. Panelist in session on "International Banking: Vulnerability and Crisis," May 2.
June 18, 1983, 4th IFAC/IFORS Conference on "The Modelling and Control of National Economies," Sheraton Washington Hotel, Washington, D.C. Chaired session on International Finance and Macroeconomics.
August 10, 1983, participated in NBER Mini-Conference on Aspects of International Capital Mobility, Sheraton Commander Hotel, Cambridge, MA.
November 10, 1983, The Conference Board, Economic Forum, New York. Presented paper on "The International Outlook."
December 28-29, 1983, American Economic Association, ASSA Meetings, New York. Discussant of papers presented in sessions on "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," and "Disinflation and Default."
March 22, 1984, Senate Caucus Room, Washington, D.C., presented paper on "Are Tax and Credit Incentives Effective After All?" at National Policy Conference: For a Growing America.
June 5, 1984, United States General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C., presented seminar paper on returning external debt of developing countries to sustainable relationships.
December 4, 1984, Korea Federation of Banks, Seoul, presented paper on "Financial Innovations in Developed Economies and Financial Reforms in Economic Development" at their First International Symposium on Financial Development.
Feb. 7, 1985, United States General Accounting Office Conference on FNMA, Washington, D. C. Presented "Comment on Herbert Kaufman, 'FNMA and the Housing Cycle'."
February 21, 1985, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa. Presented paper on "Have Taxes Led Government Expenditures in the United States?"
April 11, 1985, New York University Graduate School of Business. Presented paper on "Adjustment with IMF Lending" to International Economics Workshop.
July 26, 1985, International Workshop on Socio-Economics, University of Bath, U.K. Presented paper on "Have Taxes Led Government Expenditures in the United States?" and participated in workshop discussions.
September 26, 1985, Seminar sponsored by Council on Religion and International Affairs. Presented paper on "The IMF as Marketmaker for Official Business Between Nations," Skyline Club, Indianapolis.
December 29, 1985, American Economic Association, ASSA meetings. Presented two papers on "Supply-Side Economics from Bits and Pieces," (with R. Jeffery Green), and on "High-Tech Industries and Economic Growth," New York.
February 28, 1986, The Conference Board, Economic Forum Meeting, New York. Presented paper on "Capital Formation: National and International Considerations for the Long Term."
May 2, 1986, National Bureau of Economic Research. Discussed Mancur Olson's paper on "A Collective-Choice and Microeconomics Approach to Macroeconomics," NBER Conference on Keynesian and Classical Economics after 50 Years, Royal Sonesta Hotel, Cambridge, MA.
May 16, 1986, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics. Presented paper on "Tax and Spend or Spend and Tax?" Graduate School of Business, Knoxville.
June 4, 1986, Paris, Ancienne Ecole Polytechnique, University of Paris
- X, International Seminar on Life-Cycle Theory in Honor of Nobel prize
winner Franco Modigliani. Presented paper on "Life-Cycle Saving: A General
Paradigm or a Caricature of the Petite Bourgeoisie?"
October 14, 1986, Manhattan Institute London Conference on Taxes and Economic Growth, St. James Court Hotel, Buckingham Gate, Westminster, Presented paper on "Now that Taxes are Down, Will Government Spending Follow?"
November 20, 1986, University of Illinois at Chicago. Presented paper on "The Treatment of Uncertainty in Macroeconomics."
March 27, 1987, NBER Conference on the Measurement of Saving, Investment,
and Wealth, Omni International Hotel, Baltimore. Discussed paper on "Measuring
Saving in the Flow-of-Funds Accounts" by four authors from the Federal
May 29, 1987, University of Cologne, Germany. Gave Eleventh Annual Lecture of the Geneva Association, "Owning up to Uncertainty in Macroeconomics."
September 17, Purdue University, and September 24, 1987, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Gave paper on "How Do Economists Acquire Professional Beliefs and Learn to Change Them? An Example from Money, Debt, and Economic Activity."
October 23-24, 1987, participant, Conference on "The U.S. Trade Deficit - Causes, Consequences and Cures." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
October 30, 1987, participant, Conference on "Recent Developments in Macroeconomics." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
November 8-10, 1987, Langley, VA. Participant, Economics Colloquium. Central Intelligence Agency. Directorate of Intelligence.
December 11, 1987, University of Notre Dame, Economics Department Workshop on Public Policy. Gave talk on "The Two Faces of the Information Revolution" drawing on the paper below.
December 29, 1987, Allied Social Science Associations Meetings, AEA session, Chicago. Presented paper with Esfandiar Maasoumi on "Macroeconomic Implications of the Information Revolution."
April 7, 1988, George Washington University, Washington, DC. Addressed Socio-Economic seminar on the question of "How Economists Acquire Professional Beliefs and Learn to Change Them."
May 31-June 3, 1988, Nineteenth Annual Konstanz (Germany) Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy. Discussant of "Balance of Payments Crises, Interest Rates and Growth" by Michael Frenkel and Martin Klein (IMF).
June 29-30, 1988, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft, Cologne, Germany. Co-organized and co-chaired a conference on A Supply-Side Agenda for Germany: Lessons from the U.S. and U.K. Experiences.
October 21-22, 1988, Thirteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank at St. Louis. Discussed paper by Gerald Dwyer and Rik Hafer on "Do Fundamentals, Bubbles, or Neither Determine Stock Prices?"
February 9, 1989, U.S. State Department, Washington, DC. Presented paper on "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages."
April 6-7, 1989, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. Presented paper on "Relations Among Stock Markets Around the World" to Brookings Panel of Economic Activity Meeting.
April 17, 1989, J. W. Marriott Hotel, 1331 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Washington, DC. Gave invited off-the-record presentation on "Eurosclerosis -- Myth or Reality?" at Central Intelligence Agency Public Conference on "Western Europe: Economic Perspectives for the 1990s -- Cooperation or Challenge for the New Administration."
May 10, 1989, "The 95th," Hancock Tower, Chicago. Dinner speech: "Das Deutschlandbild der Amerikaner," Gesamtmetall (German Employer Federation) USA-Reise 1989.
May 23 - May 26, 1989, 20th Annual Konstanz (Germany) Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy. Discussant of "The Political Economy of the International Monetary Fund" by Roland Vaubel (U. of Mannheim).
June 9, 1989, Institut fur Wirtschaftspolitik, University of Cologne. Gave Seminar on "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages."
October 23, 1989, The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. Presented paper on "Taxes: A License to Spend or a Late Charge?" at Urban Institute Conference, The Great Fiscal Experiment of the 1980s.
Dec. 20-22, 1989, Tamkang University Chair Lecture Program, Tamsui and Taipei, Taiwan: Presented 3 Lectures, "International Stock Price Movements: Signals from Market to Market," Part I: "Technical Analysis," Part II: "Fundamental Analysis," and "From Pretence of Knowledge to Feigning Ignorance: Uncertainty and Signal Extraction in Macroeconomics."
Feb. 16, 1990, American Foreign Service Institute, Arlington, VA: Presented paper on "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages."
May 8, 1990, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.: Discussed paper by Paul Welfens on "Creating a European Central Bank after 1992."
June 12-15, 1990, 21st Annual Konstanz (German) Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy. Presented paper on "Policy Undertakings by the Seven 'Summit' Countries: Ascertaining the Degree of Compliance." This paper was also presented at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington, D.C., on June 28, 1990.
June 30, 1990, 65th Annual WEA International Conference, San Diego, Panelist in session on Privatizing Socialist Economies; a paper on the subject is being prepared for a volume in honor of Kenneth Boulding. Also, discussant of paper by Robert Keleher on "The Swedish Experiment of the 1930's and the Market-Price Approach to Monetary Policy" presented in another session.
July 12, 1990, U.S. Department of State, Lunchtime Seminar, EB/PAS Conference Room, Washington, D.C. Presented paper on "Pareto-Optimal Privatization as a Means for Building Political Support." Also presented at Indiana University School of Business, November 2, 1990.
September 11, 1990, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.: Invited presenter at CRS Seminar on "Germany's Future and U.S. Interests."
November 1, 1990, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Presented paper on "Policy Undertakings by the Seven 'Summit' Countries: Ascertaining the Degree of Compliance." Also presented at Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, November 16, 1990.
November 14, 1990, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, John Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.: Discussed paper by Henning Klodt on "Government Support for Restructuring the East German Economy."
December 28-29, 1990, Allied Science Association Meetings, Washington, D.C.: Discussed (1) Sven Arndt on "Trade Liberalization in the North American Context," and (2) Alan Brown on Kornai's Proposal for the Transformation of Socialist Economies."
June 1991, Fulbright Lectures on Macroeconomics and International Finance at the University of Szczecin, Poland.
October 30, 1991, National Press Club, Washington, D.C.: presented paper, Getting the Tax Price Right, at a Policy Conference on "Creating a Pro-Growth Tax Policy: Matching Means and Ends."
November 8, 1991, Miami University, Oxford, OH: Seminar presentation on "Generating Support for Rapid Privatization of Socialized Industry."
January 3, 1992, Allied Social Science Association Meetings, New Orleans, LA: AEA paper on "Representing and Scoring Fuzzy Undertakings," and NAEFA paper on "Will Monetary Union Follow Economic Union in the North American Free Trade Area?"
March 5, 1992, The New York Helmsley, New York City: One of 4 I.U. panelists speaking on "The Economic Future of Central and Eastern Europe," before the Alumni Associations of the Indiana University School of Business and the College of Arts and Sciences.
July 7, 1992, Munich University, Germany: Presented faculty seminar on "A Metric for Credibility," this paper was also presented as a workshop seminar at Purdue University, September 8; at the University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign), October 30; and at the University of Wisconsin (Madison), November 19.
September 18, 1992, Notre Dame Conference on "The Changing Distribution of Income in an Open U.S. Economy," Discussant of "A Macroeconomic Model of Income Inequality," by Nathan Balke and Daniel Slottje.
January 7, 1993, Allied Social Science Association Meetings, Anaheim, CA: AEA Paper on "The Case for a Common Currency with Mexico."
January 14, 1993: Hoosier Economists Meeting, one of 12 economists invited to a working session with Governor Evan Bayh at the State Capitol in Indianapolis.
April 22, 1993, University of Kentucky, Lexington: Presented Paper on "Growth and Income Distribution Benefits of North American Monetary Union for Mexico."
September 2-4, 1993, Conference on "The Future of the International Monetary System and Its Institutions," International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Beau Rivage Hotel, Geneva, Switzerland: Invited Member of discussion group.
September 27, 1993, Indiana University, "In Transition: A Conference on Society, Politics, and the Economy in East Central Europe." Presented "Transition Politics before Market Economics: How Power and Privilege Can Undermine Efficiency," a paper co-authored with N.O. Spangenberg.
October 1, 1993, National Bureau of Economic Research Conference, San Francisco: Discussed paper by Takatoshi Ito and Weng-Ling Lin on "Price Volatility and Volume Spillovers between the Tokyo and New York Stock Markets" at the Pan Pacific Hotel conference site.
November 9, 1993, Southern Indiana Labor-Management Education Forum, University of Southern Indiana, Evansville, half-day conference. Presenter of "North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)."
November 18, 1993, Addressed the Indiana Manufacturing Excellence Roundtable a the Indiana University School of Business on "NAFTA".
December 7, 1993, Participated in a panel discussion for Indiana State Legislator on "Indiana in the International Market Place" at the Indiana University School of Business.
January 4, 1994, Allied Social Science Association Meetings, Boston, Organized and chaired NAEFA session on "Capital Mobility and the Integration of Financial Services In North America."
April 7, 1994, Indiana University Business Forum, Indiana Memorial Union, presented paper on "The Economics of International Austerity."
April 12, 1994, Columbus Club, Indianapolis, "College Connection" luncheon presenter of "Capital Becoming Global at Last."
May 25, 1994, Konstanz (Germany) Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy, Discussant of Paper by David Laidler on "Monetarism Circa 1970 - A View from 1994."
June 8, 1994, International Seminar on the New Institutional Economics, Wallerfangen (Germany), Discussant of paper by Lee J. Alston and Gary D. Libecap on "The Emergence of Property Rights and their Behavioral Effects: The Case of the American Frontier."
June 14, 1994, Mannheim University, Germany, and June 17, 1994, Würzburg University, Germany, presented paper on "Capital Mobility with Developing Countries."
October 11, 1994, First Bissell-Fulbright Lecture, Joint with Public Economics Workshop, Centre for International Studies, University of Toronto, "Accountability and a Metric for Credibility and Compliance."
October 26, 1994, Ontario Goethe Society, Trinity College, University of Toronto, "Overstaffing as a Prelude to the Employment Collapse in Eastern Germany: An Endgame Interpretation."
January 8, 1995, Allied Social Science Associations Meetings, Washington, DC: presented paper on "Capital Mobility and Financial Integration in North America."
January 27, 1995, History of Economic Thought Workshop, University of Toronto, presented paper on "Rich Countries' Clubs and Capital Mobility with Developing Countries: Marx, Prebisch, and What is Going on Now."
February 23, 1995, Second Bissell-Fulbright Lecture, "Winning Support for Price Stability: How Governor Crow Did It" at Trinity College, University of Toronto" (Centre for International Studies Working Paper No. 1995-6).
March 2, 1995, Department of Economics, York University, Ontario, presented seminar on "International Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Growth Models: Some Perhaps Surprising Results."
May 24, 1995, "Monetary Union: Could It Happen in North America?" Address given to the Council for North American Business Studies, Simon Fraser University at Harbour Centre, Vancouver, BC.
May 30, 1995, "Macroeconomics and the Logic of Monetary Union." An address delivered to The Business Council on National Issues Conference: The Role of the United States in Canada's Trade Policy. University of Toronto.
June 9, 1995, Journées AFSE 1995: Association Française de Science Économique, Université de Nantes Conference on Intégration Économique Européenne, presented paper on "International Capital Mobility: Qui Bono" (co-authored with Michele Fratianni). The paper was also presented at the Konstanz (Germany) Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy on June 14. Earlier versions were given to a joint Business Economics/Money-Macro Workshop, University of Toronto, May 3, and at the Bank of Canada, Ottawa, May 5.
January 5, 1996, Allied Social Science Associations Meetings, San Francisco, "Indicators of Financial Development," co-authored with Michele Fratianni.
January 26, 1996, Study Group Meeting, Political Economy of European Integration, Sponsored by the Center for German and European Studies, UC Berkeley, presented paper on "International Capital Mobility, Cui Bono?" with Michele Fratianni.
May 16-17, 1996, Park Plaza Hotel, Toronto, Canada: Organized and presided over conference on "Monetary and Financial Integration in an Expanding (N)AFTA: Organization and Consequences."
June 10-11, 1996, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies Conference, Kimball Conference Center, Washington, D.C.: Presented paper on "Financial Integration in North America and Europe," co-authored with Birgit Höfer.
May 21, 1997, Université de Lille 2, France, conference on "Dynamique de l’unification monétaire européenne" : Presented paper on "Should Small Countries Join a Monetary Union Despite Asymmetric Supply Shocks?" also presented on May 23, 1997 at the 2eme Colloque, Théories et Méthodes de la Macroéconomie, at Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; and at Bonn University, Germany, on June 4, 1997.
May 27, 1997 Chaired panel on "The Next Generation of Trade Policy Development" at the May 27-28 SPEA/ENA conference on "Proposals for the U.S./European SAgenda for the 21st Century held at the Ecole Nationale d’Administration, Paris.
July 29, 1997, Research Department Seminar, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.: Presented Paper on "From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration."
Work is in progress on the following issues in international
(i) Demonstrating that the existence of asymmetric supply shocks is a weak argument
against monetary union. Indeed, under conditions modeled precisely, monetary
union may be preferred to floating exchange rates even with such shocks. (first
draft, co-authored with David T. Teolis, General Motors Corporation, completed 5/5/97 and presented by me in Europe, second draft expected spring 1998)
(ii) Showing that capital exports to developing countries with low-saving and high depreciation rates ultimately may reduce the capital exporting country's national, and the world's global, income. This in spite of the fact that not only labor in the capital- importing country, but that country as a whole, necessarily gain in both the short and the long run when international capital markets open up. (early stage of development)
(iii) Explaining that international financial integration should be assessed by focusing on the extent of integration of the international supply of financial services on a level playing field rather than on obsolete criteria of international capital mobility that are less sure indicators or correlates of economic-efficiency effects. (review paper currently in press; project completed)
(iv) Analyzing technical and portfolio characteristics and uses of inflation-protection securities in the United States, Mexico, and Chile. (research output starting with AEA-session paper to be presented with Michael T. Gapen, one of my doctoral students, Chicago, Jan. 4, 1998)
In addition, a book project on [Central Bank] Governors who Distinguished Themselves in the Fight Against Inflation Around the World is in progress with Michael K. Ulan of the U.S. Department of State to explore how much can be learned from successful and articulate policymakers.
Continuing study of Spanish and of aspects of integration in the Americas support my long-standing interest in evolutionary processes of economic and financial integration ultimately leading to monetary union in the region.