Contextualizing The Meaning of Probabilities C. Y. Joanne Peng, Anne Buu, and Bernard Flury

Table 1

Least Squares and Logit Scales for the 1993 and the 1998 Paired-Comparison Data
Probability expressions & their numerical equivalents (Reagan et al., 1989)

Least squares scale for 1998 data

(N=100)

Least squares scale for 1992 data

(N=188)

Logit scale

for 1998 data

(N=100)

Logit scale

for 1992 data

(N=188)

Almost impossible (2%)

0.000

0.000

0.005

0.007

Very unlikely (10%)

-0.553

-0.235

0.006

0.014

Improbable (15%)

-0.448

-0.456

0.010

0.012

Unlikely (15%)

-0.292

-0.171

0.014

0.021

Possible (40%)

0.780

0.338

0.099

0.058

An even chance (50%)

0.427

0.205

0.059

0.049

Probable (70%)

0.917

0.780

0.163

0.141

Likely (70%)

1.225

0.995

0.276

0.200

Very probable (80%)

1.339

1.336

0.471

0.446

Very likely (85%)

1.443

1.385

0.546

0.516

Almost certain (90%)

1.643

1.560

1.000

1.000


Table 2

Correlations between Paired-Comparison Scales

1

2

3

4

1. Least squares scale for 1998 data

--

.97

.82

.78

2. Least squares scale for 1992 data

--

.88

.85

3. Logit scale for 1998 data

--

.99

4. Logit scale for 1992 data

--