SPEA Students Examine the Future of Electricity

Global consumption and generation of electricity will increase 350 percent over the next 50 years, according to students of a graduate capstone course at the Indiana University School of Public and Environmental Affairs in Bloomington. In order to meet this increased demand, the relative mix of fuel sources will remain highly dependent of fossil fuels, though generation technologies will become cleaner and more efficient.

The course provided Master of Public Affairs (MPA) and Master of Science and Environmental Studies (MSES) students with an opportunity to apply their knowledge and skills in a demanding, real-world interdisciplinary setting. In compiling the report, they integrated science and technology with economic, social and political factors.

The 42-student team presented their report to faculty, government and industry experts on May 1, representing the culmination of almost four months of research. The presentation and report addressed a question put forth by faculty: "What is the worldwide future of electricity over the next 50 years?"

The report profiles the state of electricity today, examines major "game changers," and forecasts global electricity generation and consumption over the next 50 years -- compiling economic various changes that experts predict to occur.

Students first took a global perspective, then examined four very different countries: Brazil, China, France and the United States. Each of the foreign examples represents a distinct set of conditions and policies, which are useful in understanding approaches to electricity. To define each by its outstanding feature; Brazil has made a commitment to generate the vast majority of its electricity renewably, Chinese policymakers faces a drastically increasing demand -- a concern mirrored by many parts of the developing world -- and France has relatively stable consumption that is supplied predominantly by nuclear power.

Report Findings

The most striking finding was the distribution of growth in electricity generation. In the year 2060, electricity consumption in the currently developing world will have grown to more than twice that of the developed world. Therefore, even though the report expects developed nations to increase their percentage of renewable generation supply, they will represent a vastly smaller percentage of electricity consumption.

This highlights the extreme importance of bringing clean electricity generation technologies to the developing world. If not, any environmental changes made to fight climate change in the U.S. will be of limited significance on a global scale. By the year 2060, a global population near 10 billion will have higher median incomes and consume 350 percent more electricity than current levels.

The second most striking finding of the report was that carbon prices will likely not reach levels to substantially change the percentage of fossil fuel generation in the next 50 years. By compiling the research of experts around the world, students calculated the increased costs for generation if government were to limit or tax the emissions from these power plants. They found that even with higher costs from regulation, it would still often be cheaper to use alternate technologies, such as carbon capture and sequestration than many sources of renewable electricity.

Third, the shift to primarily renewable energies continues to be limited by geographic and environmental factors. While hydroelectric, wind and geothermal generation of electricity can reach competitive pricing levels, they remain limited in the regions where production is possible. For example, while North Dakota has a high potential for wind generation, we lack the grid infrastructure to transport it to more populated regions. Additionally, our infrastructure is not well equipped to store electricity from these intermittent sources -- leaving them unable to handle the bulk of demand.

Sponsorship

This capstone received sponsorship from the Indiana University Center for Research in Energy and the Environment

(CREE), a member of the Indiana Consortium for Research in Energy Systems and Policy. A new Web site for the Center for Research in Energy and the Environment will go online soon. This report on the Future of Electricity will be availible for download from that site.

CREE assembles top scholars from multiple disciplines to conduct innovative, timely and relevant research in the broad

area of energy, focusing specifically on: advanced fossil fuels and nuclear power; alternative or renewable energy resources; local and regional carbon cycle dynamics; environmental and economic consequences of energy production and distribution.

The director of the center, Professor James C. Randolph, and Professor Clinton V. Oster, both faculty members in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs, advised the students throughout the research process.