G141 REVIEW:  EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Long-term Earthquake Forecasting

Time-scale = decades --> years

Short-term Earthquake Prediction

Time-scale = months --> hours

Key parameters

• Time of earthquake
• Location of earthquake
• Depth of earthquake
• Magnitude of earthquake
• Probability of occurrence

Long-term Earthquake Forecasting

• Historical seismicity
• Paleoseismology
• Elastic strain accumulation
• Seismic gap theory
• Earthquake statistics

Short-term Earthquake Forecasting

• Seismicity changes
• Changes in groundwater (level, chemistry)
• Ground deformation
• Changes in seismic velocity
• Changes in electrical properties
• Changes in magnetic properties
• Changes in Earth gravity
• Anomalous radio signals
• Anomalous animal behavior