G141 REVIEW: VOLCANIC
FORECASTING & PREDICTION
Forecasting: Long-term (years to decades)
record of volcanic behavior
Useful for land-use planning, zoning, disaster
preparedness
Types of observations:
- Historical records of volcanic eruptions
- Geologic (prehistoric) volcanic history
- Consistent (cyclic) vs. erratic behavior
- Inverse relation between eruption magnitude &
frequency
Prediction: Short-term behavior of volcano
prior to eruption
Useful for evacuation, short-term
disaster response, etc.
Instrumental measurements
- Volcanic seismology
- Crustal deformation
- Physical Properties
- Gas measurements
Volcanic seismology
- Volcano-tectonic (high-frequency) earthquakes (rock
fracture)
- Volcanic (low-frequency) earthquakes (fluid flow)
- Harmonic (volcanic) tremor: continuous vibration
associated with fluid flow
Physical properties
- Gravity
- Magnetics
- Electrical properties
Deformation monitoring
- Ground leveling
- Tilt
- Horizontal displacement (laser)
- GPS
- Satellite measurements
Gas monitoring