EXPLORING TRENDS

A WebQuest for 6^th Grade Mathematics

INTRODUCTION

What time of year do most students buy shoes? Why do people tend to purchase more bicycles during a certain month in the year? How do companies decide when the best time to put a video game system on sale is?

Questions like these are asked by organizations every day, and many companies depend on TRENDS* to find the answers. Being able to understand and interpret trends can help a company to not only satisfy its customers, but to also make good PROFITS*. Companies that do not pay attention to trends, on the other hand, often experience failure.

This webquest was designed for you to simulate starting your own lemonade stand business and make decisions for its success or failure based on your ability to interpret and understand trends. Get ready for a fun and exciting challenge in the wonderful world of business and statistics.

*use the following sites for vocabulary definitions, if needed:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_&_Outreach/NASS_Kids/glossary.html#stat

http://www.wordcentral.com/

TASK

Your business venture will include the following steps:

You will participate in a simulated online business activity called “Lemonade Stand”

You will record important statistical data for different aspects of your business on a “Daily Record Sheet”

You will make daily changes to your product and resources based on the data you record

You will create graphs to represent trends from the information recorded

You will then repeat steps 1-4, in hopes that you can use your data to increase profits and customer satisfaction the second time.

PROCESS

Lemonade Stand:

You will partner up with another student and get 3 copies of the “Daily Record Sheet [bottom of page]” (each pair gets 6 copies).

Go to the following website: http://4webgames.com/lemonade/

Scroll down to the middle of the screen and click on SINGLE PLAYER (LET’S PLAY). Read the Lemonade Stand Introduction and answer the following questions:

What is the goal of this game/ activity? (sentence 2)

___________________________________________________________

What do you have to deal with that will be unpredictable? (sentence 5)

___________________________________________________________

What other factors will make or break your business? (sentence 7)

___________________________________________________________

Customers are more apt to pay higher prices when the weather is

____________________________. (sentence 8)

If you sell a good product (your lemonade) for a good price, you will

___________________ ____________________ over time. (sentence 13)

If customers are enjoying their product, others are more likely to

___________. (sentence 16)

Click OK (2 times) when you have read and understand the instructions.

INVENTORY/ PURCHASING

Step 1: Record the Day, Money, High Temperature, and Weather Forecast located at the bottom of the page in your Daily Record Sheet.

Step 2: This page shows how many paper cups, lemons, cups of sugar, and ice cubes you have. To buy more of any item, simply click on BUY MORE…

Step 3: You have the choice to buy 3 different amounts of that item. Decide which amount you want to buy, click on BUY IT! , and then, click OK.

Step 4: When you are done buying all the items you want, record the amount of paper cups, lemons, cups of sugar, and ice cubes in your Daily Record Sheet, then click on OK.

*you may click on HELP for any additional assistance

PRICE/ QUALITY CONTROL

Step 1: Set the price, lemons per pitcher, sugar per pitcher, and ice cubes per cup.

Step 2: When you are finished, record the price, lemons per pitcher, sugar per pitcher, and ice cubes per cup in your Daily Record Sheet, then click OK.

*you may click on HELP or go Back to Store, if needed

Hint/ Tip: clicking on FAST FORWARD will speed the day along much more quickly.

END OF DAY REPORTS

Step 1: Record your Customer Satisfaction and Popularity percentages, Cups Sold and Potential Customers on the Daily Record Sheet, then click OK.

Step 2: Record Inventory Losses on the Daily Record Sheet, if there are any.

Step 3: Open a separate internet window and go to: http://www.math.com/everyone/calculators/calc_source/percent.htm . Using the first line, place your Customer Satisfaction % in the first box and your Cups Sold value in the second box. Round the calculated answer to the nearest whole number and record it in the Satisfied Customers box on your Daily Record Sheet.

You are now ready to begin the next day. Please, repeat this process for every single day of this activity, and remember to record all of your information on the Daily Record Sheet.

Graphs:

When your information is recorded for all 30 days, go to the following site: http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/ .

CUSTOMER SALES GRAPH

Step 1: click on Bar Graph; Direction – true 3D; Shape – rectangle; Style: background color – white, grid color – black, grid lines – 6, appearance – 3d, legend – position right.

Step 2: click on the Data tab. Fill in: Graph Title – Customer Sales, X-Axis – phase, Y-Axis – number, Source – Daily Record Sheet. Data Set: items – 5, groups – 3; Group 1 – potential customers, Group 2 – customers that bought, Group 3 – satisfied customers.

Step 3: Find the mean (average) of Potential Customers for the first 6 days (Phase 1). Round that number to the nearest whole number and record it in the value section of Group 1, item 1. Repeat this process for Phase 2 (days 7-12), Phase 3 (days 13-18), Phase 4 (19-24), Phase 5 (25-30). http://www.mathleague.com/help/data/data.htm# (mean, median, mode information)

http://www.coolmath.com/calculators/scientificcalc.htm (online calculator)

Step 4: Repeat step 3 for Group 2: customers that bought, and Group 3: satisfied customers.

Step 5: Item labels are as follows: Item 1 – 1, Item 2 – 2, Item 3 – 3, etc… Leave the MIN-value, MAX-value boxes blank

Step 6: click on the Label tab and change the font size to 18pt

Step 7: click on the Preview tab to preview the graph

Step 8: click on the Print tab and print the graph

DAILY PROFITS/ LOSSES GRAPH

Step 1: click on Line Graph; Style: background color – white, grid color – gray, grid lines – 6, appearance – shadow, legend – position right

Step 2: click on the Data tab. Fill in Graph Title – Daily Profit/ Loss, X-Axis – phase, Y-Axis – Amount, Source – Daily Record Sheet. Data Set: items – 5, groups – 1, Group Label – Profit/ Losses, line width – medium, point shape – circle, point size – medium. Item labels: Item 1 – phase 1, Item 2 – phase 2, etc… For Value, place the money amount for the last day of each phase. For example, phase 1 value would be the Money amount for day 6 on the Daily Record Sheet.

Step 3: click on the Label tab. Change the font to 18pt, type – value, position – above.

Step 4: click on the Preview tab to preview the graph

Step 5: click on the Print tab and print the graph

REVIEWING THE DATA

Take a look at your Daily Record Sheet and Graphs. This information can be used to help you make better profits with greater customer satisfaction the second time you participate in Lemonade Stand. You and your partner should contemplate the following questions:

Which days did I make the greatest profits? What caused these days to be so profitable?

Which days did I receive the greatest customer satisfaction? What factors affected the outcome?

Which recipe did my customers seem to enjoy the most? What is the mode* for my price/cup, lemons/pitcher, and sugar/pitcher. Were these numbers effective?

What range of temperatures are my lemons likely to spoil and ice likely to melt at the close of the day.

Which weather forecasts did I receive the most potential customers?

What days will customers be willing to pay more? Are there any trends?

What days will customers not be willing to pay more? Are thee any trends?

You can even come up with you own questions that may help you to make some sound decisions that will help your business.

*http://www.mathleague.com/help/data/data.htm# (mean, median, mode information)

LEMONADE STAND (2^ND attempt)

Repeat the Lemonade stand process a second time making sure you and your partner record the information on a Daily Record Sheet.

GRAPHS (2^ND copy)

Repeat the Graph process a second time making sure you use the date from the second lemonade stand attempt.

EVALUATION

	Beginning 1	Developing 2	Accomplished 3	Exemplary 4	Score
Lemonade Stand Introduction questions answered correctly	2 or fewer questions answered correctly	3 of 6 questions answered correctly	4 of 6 questions answered correctly	5 or more questions answered correctly
Mean Calculations for graphs done correctly	1 or fewer phase number mean values calculated accurately for both graphs	2-3 phase number mean values calculated accurately for both graphs	4-5 phase number mean values calculated accurately for both graphs	All phase number mean values calculated accurately for both graphs
Daily Record Sheet completion	No Information recorded on Daily Record Sheet	Frequent gaps of information on Daily Record Sheet	Occasional gaps of information on Record Sheet	All information recorded for entire 30 day activity
Increase in profits	Line Graphs clearly demonstrate no increase in profits for 2^nd attempt	Line Graphs clearly demonstrate an increase of up to 9% in profits for 2^nd attempt	Line Graphs clearly demonstrate a 10-24% increase in profits for 2^nd attempt	Line Graphs clearly demonstrate a 25% or more increase in profits for 2^nd attempt
Increase in customer satisfaction	Bar Graphs clearly demonstrate no increase in customer satisfaction or sales for 2^nd attempt	Bar Graphs clearly demonstrate an increase of up to 9% in customer satisfaction or sales for 2^nd attempt	Bar Graphs clearly demonstrate a 10-24% increase in customer satisfaction or sales for 2^nd attempt	Bar Graphs clearly demonstrate a 25% or more increase in customer satisfaction or sales for 2^nd attempt

CONCLUSION

By the end of this activity you will have practiced a number of different skills, which include, finding the mean in sets of data, using the mode and range in sets of data, creating physical representations of data, using that data to determine trends, and make decisions based on those trends. The more you practice this activity, the better you get at it. Keep at it, and you will find that practice truly does make perfect.

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

We all benefit by being generous with our work. Permission is hereby granted for other educators to copy this WebQuest, update or otherwise modify it, and post it elsewhere provided that the original author's name is retained along with a link back to the original URL of this WebQuest. On the line after the original author's name, you may add Modified by (your name) on (date). If you do modify it, please provide the new URL.

Last updated 10/2/2006 Based on a template from The WebQuest Page

Daily Record Sheet

Day:	Money:		High Temp:		Weather Forecast:
Paper cups:		Lemons:		Cups of sugar:		Ice cubes:
Price/cup: cents		Lemons/pitcher:		Sugar/pitcher:		Ice/cup:
*Customer satisfaction:*				*Popularity:*
*Inventory Losses:*				*Cups sold:* *Potential customers:*			*Satisfied customers:*

Day:	Money:		High Temp:		Weather Forecast:
Paper cups:		Lemons:		Cups of sugar:		Ice cubes:
Price/cup: cents		Lemons/pitcher:		Sugar/pitcher:		Ice/cup:
*Customer satisfaction:*				*Popularity:*
*Inventory Losses:*				*Cups sold:* *Potential customers:*			*Satisfied customers:*

Day:	Money:		High Temp:		Weather Forecast:
Paper cups:		Lemons:		Cups of sugar:		Ice cubes:
Price/cup: cents		Lemons/pitcher:		Sugar/pitcher:		Ice/cup:
*Customer satisfaction:*				*Popularity:*
*Inventory Losses:*				*Cups sold:* *Potential customers:*			*Satisfied customers:*

Day:	Money:		High Temp:		Weather Forecast:
Paper cups:		Lemons:		Cups of sugar:		Ice cubes:
Price/cup: cents		Lemons/pitcher:		Sugar/pitcher:		Ice/cup:
*Customer satisfaction:*				*Popularity:*
*Inventory Losses:*				*Cups sold:* *Potential customers:*			*Satisfied customers:*

Day:	Money:		High Temp:		Weather Forecast:
Paper cups:		Lemons:		Cups of sugar:		Ice cubes:
Price/cup: cents		Lemons/pitcher:		Sugar/pitcher:		Ice/cup:
*Customer satisfaction:*				*Popularity:*
*Inventory Losses:*				*Cups sold:* *Potential customers:*			*Satisfied customers:*