Educational Systems Theory

Property: Event Uncertainty Growth


Educational system event uncertainty growth is increase in event uncertainty (increase in selective information). (p. 63)


An increase in the uncertainty of something falling within a particular category is another way to think about event uncertainty growth. When things are classified in a system the probability of encountering something which fits into a particular classification increase or decrease depending on the number of items and the number of classifications. The greater the number of classifications and the fewer the members of that category within the system the greater the uncertainty that someone will encounter a member of a particular group, thus there is selective information growth.



The diagrams above demonstrate event uncertainty growth due to a move from homogeneous to heterogeneous grouping by ability level. As seen in figure one, the class initially contains only high achieving students. The probability of encountering a high achieving student is 100% and so uncertainty is zero. After heterogeneous grouping, the probability of encountering a low achieving student becomes 10% and the chances of encountering a moderately achieving student is 50%, thus uncertainty is increased to 1.42. This increase in uncertainty is event uncertainty growth. Other examples of event uncertainty growth would include a school which adopts inclusion, or a school which adopts the Montessori method. The inclusive school demonstrates event uncertainty growth due to the inclusion of students who have handicapping conditions into the school's classrooms. The school which adopts the Montessori method demonstrates event uncertainty growth due to an increase in the number of subject areas being studied at the same time and in the same room.

Related Terms:

size growth

complexity growth

size degeneration

complexity degeneration

Hypotheses Containing the Property: Event Uncertainty Growth

#192. If educational system size growth decreases and event uncertainty growth is constant, then complexity growth increases.

#193. If educational system size degeneration decreases and event uncertainty growth is constant, then complexity degeneration increases.

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Last updated by Marty Bray, 3/7/95